The Polls Giveth and the Polls Taketh Away

Only a day after I was celebrating some upbeat polling data for McCain, a new poll has come out showing Big Mac tied with Obama in Indiana, a state that should be safely Republican. While I'm pretty sure that Indiana will stay red this cycle, it looks like McCain may have to spend some money shoring up this would-be base state.

Good Polls for Big Mac

According to some recent polling, Obama is up by only 3 points in Oregon and he is up by only 4 points in Pennsylvania. Given the lingering goodwill and positive media attention surround the Junior Senator's clinching of the Democratic nomination, I think that this data should give Team Maverick a cause for optimism. If McCain could snag either Oregon or Pennsylvania, two states that both voted Dem in 2004, the Obamesiah would be finished.

Better than Kerry?

While this post by Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic is heartening in that it describes a hardline Hillary supporter endorsing McCain, Ambinder himself makes a questionable assertion. Specifically, he says that Obama is doing better at this point in the 2008 election than Kerry was at this point in 2004. Is this really true? Sure, Obama's poll numbers may be better, but Obama has been rocked by scandals of Swift Boat magnitude months before any similar misfortunes befell Kerry. Remember: at this point in 2004, Kerry's chief qualification among Democrats was his "electability." Can anyone say the same thing about Obama?